Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line

Using a random line at a Las Vegas casino sportsbook for a mythical Yankees/Royals game, we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.

To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%

Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.

Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.

For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4

For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:

((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.

Simply knowing how to calculate the no-vig probabilities is not going to make you a winning bettor but you can use those probabilities to help you win; one way to do this is to create a model that are more accurate than the opening lines of a sportsbook.

Suppose that you model the game tomorrow between the Yankees and the Royals and the lines are -160/+150 respectively and you model the game with a fair line of -170/+170. Obviously the underdog is not a good bet since you only get a price of +150 on a game where you predict they should be getting +170. Conversely, the price of -160 is more appealing since the line is better than you have modelled. The line of -170 you predicted converts to a winning percentage of 62.96% as opposed to the actual line of -160 which gives 61.54% – this means that taking the Yankees at a price of -160 gives you an edge of 1.42%.

When you bet with a positive edge (based on the line you bet versus the no vig closing line, assuming you are betting into efficient markets) you will win at sports betting over the long term. If you bet with a negative edge then, much like a game of roulette at your local casino, you will be a lifetime loser.

Fixed Odds Football Betting

The fixed odds football betting scheme is one of the best and most widely used option when dealing with sports betting since it uses a very up to date and highly accurate formula and means of assessing bets. Basically, this works by using the variables involved in the game and integrating it in a mathematical formula that would give the probability of the direction of the game. People should understand that everything can be predicted properly when the correct tools are used. This is the principle employed by the fixed odds method of looking into betting and game predictions. Many people have experienced success through this formula which makes it very reliable and appropriate for big time gamers. In fact, everything can be processed using the internet.

The fixed odds website has been designed to cater for the needs of the people who are looking to assess the games and place their bets into quality predictions. That is why the information, tips and guides found in the web site tackles the different betting modes found in every game which includes international, national and local events throughout the country. This is because millions of people are relying on the fixed odds betting for them to make good and profitable decisions. Multiple bets are encouraged by the site in order to take advantage of the situation and reduce the risk of losing money in one risk. This is a proven method which is called as progressive betting where in the money used and won is constantly bet. By following all the options and steps in the site, success can easily be gained.

The fixed odds football betting has been licensed in almost all the countries in the world since it uses all the legal means and ways of providing service without violation of the rights of the people and clients involved. It has been proven since the members post their betting statistics to the site to show how the advice and guides given where able to help them achieve their goal. It has easily given the people the easy and most practical way to earn money without putting their money in significant risk. In fact, millions of people have already found success in their favorite games since professional advice is given in the site. Believe it or not, the site is in collaboration with famous and veteran sports analyst who gives their thought on the game. This is a great help which could be the difference in earning or losing the entire client’s money.

The fixed odds football betting has changed the way how people bet their money on sports gambling since it has revolutionized fixed odds betting into something that is manageable and predictable. Betting is not dangerous when the user implements the proper tactic and method in deciding where to put his money. This would easily help thousands of sports enthusiasts to earn money through their favorite sporting events. Earning money has been made a hobby through the fixed bets football odds.

Win at Online Poker With Poker Odds Calculators

If you’re reading this then you must be an online poker enthusiast. In the next few minutes I’ll introduce you to a new generation of poker software called poker odds calculators! Poker odds calculators will enhance your game and help you win more hands, tournaments and increase your income! They greatly improved my poker play, I avoided bad bets, stopped chasing bad hands and cashed out more often. I’m actually not a poker genius, just a mediocre player, so if I did it, you can do it too. If you are not using such a program, it is highly likely someone is surely using it on you! Recent estimates indicate that more than 40% of online poker players have some sort of program aid while playing online Texas Holdem poker, and the percentage just keeps rising! That means that you either have a distinct advantage over your competition if you are using these tools or you are being exploited by more prepared players. Now I’m going to answer a few basic questions about odds calculators.

What exactly is a poker odds calculator?

Poker odds calculator is a special software created with a complex set of algorithms, which compute the chances of winning, based on past computations and past played hands; the odds that this particular combination of cards will come up at a particular point in a game. While this information may seem to be too big and complex to be memorized, there are some very basic odds that can be memorized. Most successful poker players have educated themselves on the basic theories of odds so they can make snap decisions based upon those statistics as quickly as the cards are dealt. This gives them great advantage over amateur players because they can calculate the odd of winning that particular hand. This is the most important information you can have in online poker. This is precisely why amateurs should look to level the chances of winning by using an online poker odds calculator. There is an old saying which fits here perfectly “God created man, Sam Colt made them equal.” The same is with poker calculators, “God created poker players, odds calculators made them equal”:)

Are they suitable for every poker player?

Yes, they are not designed only for hardcore players. Every poker player has a calculator designed to suit his needs. If you are a beginner player best choice would be a beginner friendly calculator like Texas Calculatem. For intermediate players I would recommend Holdem Indicator and Calculatem Pro, one off the most popular advanced calculators available. For more advanced online poker players who need more functions and statistics best choice would be Holdem Genius, very powerful odds calculator. There are some specialized pieces od poker software, like Tournament Indicator and Sit and Go shark. Tournament indicator is odds calculator designed specially for Texas Holdem tournament play and Sit and Go Shark for Sit and Go tournaments.

Are they expensive?

Odds calculators can only be used when you get an unlock code from the software’s administrator. The best part about poker calculators is that you can get them for free! They retail price varies from $70 to $100 but here you will learn how you can get license for FREE and save some money for poker!Is using poker calculators cheating? No, not really. They just bring you up to speed with the poker professionals and mathematical geniuses who have this information in their head and use it to make key probability decisions all the time. Majority of poker sites describe poker calculators as acceptable 3rd party software. So no worries there.

Where can you use them?

Almost 99% of online poker rooms support poker odds calculator. For detail list of poker rooms supported visit the wanted calculator review page and find the supported rooms there!

Why to buy poker odds calculator?

I will not speak about morality and legal consequences of using “cracked” or “patched” version of odds calculator software, just about practical downside. Every poker odds calculator updates itself regularly (approx. every week or two), automatically adding new functionality and tweaks. You can use your instance of software only when it’s updated to current version available! So the conclusion is, if you want to use odds calculator of your choice on a regular basis use the registered version!

Enjoy your poker!

Harry B.

How to Win in Slot Machines – Improve Slot Machine Odds

If you want to learn how to win in slot machines, then read this. You will improve slot machine odds.

First, do not play all by your self. It is better to play with friends. Who would want to play all alone? That would be too boring, right? If you are with the friends, you have someone to share the jackpot with. And, two heads are better than one. So, you have bigger chances of winning if you play with friends.

Do not think solely about winning. Think of enjoying the game. Slots are made for entertainment, not for trouble. With this, you are winning satisfaction. Your positive attitude attracts positive energy which may even draw chances of winning. For more fun, play slots for fun or online slots for free. With this, your bankroll is not at risk. You are even getting techniques from this ‘practice play.’

Understanding how slot machines operate also is a good tactic on how to win slot. Are you aware that slots are controlled by electronic RNG which means random number generator? This RNG is the one that modifies the result of game a thousand times every second. With this, a list of probable combinations together with points or coins each should pay will appear on the table. Thus, as a witty player, you need to have a complete understanding on how many coins will be played to be able to hit the jackpot. In short, you will win nothing if you only have a few coins to play.

Another strategy on how to win slot machines is to choose the one that provides the best payout. And even if a certain machine gives you good pay outs, know how to quit. If your roll bank is emptied or you won on that machine, leave it. Do not think that machine is lucky for you and play again. You will surely lose the next times around because the RNG will make sure you will not win again. Try other slots. Look for slots that offer big jackpot bonuses. In playing with slots, allot a certain amount for your play. If you reached your limit, stop. Do not put yourself to bankruptcy. Playing slots is just a GAME, do not GAMBLE too much. You may also set a time deadline. So, once your time is up, stop and go home. Do not be too addicted with the game. If you are not winning on a certain machine, stop and look for other machines.

There are types of slot machines. Be sure to know how to deal with the machine in front of you. There are those that have levers to be pulled while others have various buttons. You may ask the casino’s support staff if you are not sure with the machine you are about to play with. Surely, they will be willing to help you.

What Are the Odds – Big Slick Suited

Every list of texas holdem starting hands has Big Slick suited (AKs in poker shorthand) near the top. It is a very powerful starting hand, and one that shows a profit over time if played well. But, it is not a made hand by itself, and cannot be treated like one.

Lets look at some of the odds involving AKs before the flop.

Against any pair, even a lowly pair of twos, Big Slick at best a coin flip. Sometimes it is a slight underdog because if you do not create a hand with the board cards, Ace high will lose to a pair.

Against hands like AQ or KQ where you have the higher of the cards in the opposing hand “covered”, AKs is roughly a 7 to 3 favorite. That’s about as good as it gets pre-flop with this hand. It’s as good as taking AKs up against 72 offsuit.

Against a better hand, say JT suited, your odds are roughly 6 to 4 in your favor. Better than a coin flip, but perhaps not as much of a favorite as you would think.

When the flop lands, the value of your hand will probably be made clear. If you land the top pair on the board, you have a major advantage with a top pair/top kicker situation. You will often win bets put in by players with the same pair, but a lesser kicker.

You will also beat good starting hands like QQ, and JJ if they do not flop their three-of-a-kind. Not to mention that if you flop a flush or a flush draw, you will be drawing to the nut, or best possible flush. These are all things that make AKs such a nice starting hand to have.

But what if the flop comes, and misses you. You will still have two overcards (cards higher than any of those on the board). What are your odds now for catching an Ace or a King on the turn or the river and salvaging your hand? Of course this only works if a pair is able to salvage the hand and will be good enough to win the pot.

If the Ace or King you’d like to see land on the board doesn’t also fill in someone else’s straight or flush draw, you would have six cards (three remaining Kings and three remaining Aces) that can give you the top pair.

With those six outs, the odds of landing your card on the turn are roughly one in eight, so if you’re planning on putting money into the pot to chase it, look for at least seven dollars in there for every one dollar you’re willing to bet to keep the pot odds even. Those odds do not change much on the river.

While playing poker by the odds does not guarantee that you’ll win every hand, or even every session, not knowing the odds is a dangerous situation for anyone at the poker table that is thinking of risking their money in a pot.

Connecticut Classic Lotto Game Odds and Prize Payouts

CT Lottery describes its Classic Lotto game as “Connecticut’s game of choice.” Why would it be considered the state’s game of choice? Probably because it has decent payouts, coupled with great odds when compared with some of its big games like Powerball and Mega Millions. This article examines the odds and prize payouts of CT Lottery’s Classic Lotto game.

Classic Lotto is a 6/44 game. That means that to win the jackpot, you must match all 6 numbers out of a possible 44. The odds of matching all 6 numbers are exactly 1-in-7,059,052. How much do you win for matching all 6 numbers? That depends on the size of the jackpot. The jackpot starts at $1 million and keeps increasing if it is not won.

How high can the game’s jackpot grow? The jackpot could potentially rise above $10 million. However, in recent years, $10 million has been the ceiling. A woman named Charlotte Peters won a $10 million jackpot from Classic Lotto on December 2, 2008. Other notable winners in the last few years include:

  • Marilyn Citron, of Mystic, won $9.7 million on January 1, 2010.
  • James and Jean Seitz, of Torrington, won $5.5 million on March 18, 2008.
  • Elsie Febo Carmona, of Waterbury, won $2.4 million on July 7, 2009.
  • Jeri Buonincontra, of Stratford, won $2.3 million on May 13, 2009.
  • Mona Cappuccio, of Newington, won $2.3 million on March 20, 2009.
  • Fotios Vokolos, of New London, won $1.6 million on January 30, 2009.

As you could see the sizes of the jackpots vary.

Aside from the jackpot, the Classic Lotto game offers a few more prizes. Here is the list of the other prize payouts, along with the odds of winning:

  • Matching 5-out-of-6 numbers (1-in-30,961) wins a prize of $2000.
  • Matching 4-out-of-6 numbers (1-in-669) wins a prize of $50.
  • Matching 3-out-of-6 numbers (1-in-42) wins a prize of $2.

The overall odds of winning any prize in are 1-in-39.3.

As you can see, the Classic Lotto game offers decent prizes and the odds are relatively good. So if you live in the great state of Connecticut, be sure to pick up a Classic Lotto ticket. You never know when you will be a big winner!

What Sports Betting Websites Present More Than Odds?

In this article we are going to discuss about websites that contain the superior sport betting solutions.

If you Google it, you will find thousands of links that are about sports betting and some of these links contain great betting tips on the Internet. Let’s study closer on certain of these websites.

If you are a good bettor and are familiar with betting you might have heard of Bodog, Betmaker, The Greek and Pinnacle? These websites are the best sports books as many reviews have confirmed them and wrote several reviews about them.

So what is that these books offer to make them so special compare to the other sports betting websites?!

What similarities and strategies could these websites have? More than anything else it’s our decision, not the conditions of our betting’s that determine our betting’s destiny.

These websites have some advantages which can help a bettor to win the game or guess which sports team will win the game. The following are some facts that reveal some of the advantages that these websites do have:

o The first and foremost fact is that these websites concentrate on sports betting. You don’t see ads or any other topics in these websites. It is all about game and betting. We won’t deny the fact that there might be a couple of casino games or poker games in some of them, but the focal attention of the website’s content is sports betting. So as you see the niche is pretty clear about spots gambling. These websites contain the best gambling with great graphic and user interface. Webmasters of these websites try to keep them bug free so that people will enjoy surfing around and betting on their favorite teams.

o These best sport books contain the best online support that make sure your needs are met. They are there to answer to your questions and help you to solve your problem. This is one of the important factors for an online business which is to provide a great customer service.

o They provide odds upon the entire great USA sports which are famous and favorite teams not only in America but also the other countries of the world. These websites or sport books contain popular odds such as: soccer, football, hockey and cricket.

o As we talk about earlier, these websites have a great user interface and various methods of payment. This will facilitate payment procedures without a problem. A user who wishes to use these betting websites can trust their payment gateways as they are equipped with security system which prevents hackers to hack in and steal away people’s money. A user simply sings up a membership, receives some amount of bonus on deposit, and then starts the game.

o These electronic sports books or websites provide services such as point spreads and over or under and moneyline

o Each of the sites provides free information on betting and/or sports news.

o All of these sports books have a track record of at least nine years.

Although these websites have a great security system, you might think as to whether anything happens and you experience any problem! Long story short, you might think whether something goes wrong!

I presume nothing is 100% secure as long as it is online. Hackers nowadays have been using sophisticated tactics and methodologies to break in to a system. There are no doubts in it. However the odds for these sites get hacked is 30-70%

However there are many factors for you to consider when you wish for choosing the best sports book on the internet. This is up to you to choose which website you would like to choose. Nothing can resist the human will that will take even its existence on its stated purpose. As long as you plan to win a game, then you are prepared to give it a go.

The Daily Derby is a Unique Lotto Game From the California Lottery With Good Odds of Winning

Usually, when you think of lottery games, you think of numbered balls being drawn at random. That is the case with the majority of games, but some lotteries try to be different. California Lottery is one such example. They have a lotto game that is totally unique and it is called Daily Derby.

Daily Derby is a mock horse racing game. To play the game, you pick which horses in a mock race will finish first, second, and third. As well, you pick the winning time for the horse that comes in first. The winning time could be anywhere between 1 minute, forty seconds to 1 minute, 49.99 seconds. Of course, no actual race takes place. Instead, California Lottery will randomly choose the results. You win the grand prize if you correctly choose the trifecta (pick the winning positions of the three horses) and correctly choose the winning time of the horse that places first. The grand prize could be anywhere from tens of thousands of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The odds of winning the grand prize are 1-in-1.32-million. Those are pretty good odds for winning a lottery jackpot!

Daily Derby also offers lower tiered prizes. You can win prizes for correctly choosing the trifecta (minus the winning time), correctly picking the first two positions, correctly picking just the first position, and correctly picking just the winning time.

What I love most about this game is the fact that it is different and unique. It is based on a form of popular entertainment, horse racing, and turned into a lotto game. It is truly an innovative product from California Lottery.

So if you live in the state of California, be sure to try the unique Daily Derby lotto game. It costs $2 to play and the odds of winning are pretty good. You could also win some great prizes.

Sports Betting Odds For the NBA

Betting in sports is enticing for any sports enthusiast; besides that it spices up the game even more with all those screaming bettors around you, it can be a rewarding leisure that boasts of lump sum of cash winnings. Nevertheless, what are the sports betting odds for something like the NBA?

If you based it on sports book, sports betting odds are generally unaffected or fixed. They say nothing can be done to effect change. But other sports enthusiasts believe otherwise. They consider the possibilities of maximizing the sports betting odds and successful chances to hit big time in sports betting, whether in the NBA or any other sport in the United States.

The first thing to consider is to have a sports betting system to rely on, which helps you sift through different games and identify where to bet best. By doing so, you have higher chances in sports betting odds by 97% for any NBA game. But still never bet your whole bankroll in one game. So how do you know which system works for your game?

There are online sports betting experts that can hand out pieces of advices that can assist you in every bet that you make on a game. Although they are not saying that by having a workable system, you are not liable anymore to losses in any game. There is risk wherever you are at, but having an effective system lowers your risk on terrible betting losses and increases your sports betting odds. These sports betting systems are good enough to be used universally, as long as sports betting are deemed legal.

Betting in games is so far not completely regarded as a legal form of gambling, because there are countries that still find such form as unethical and illegal in their state laws. Do we have to blame such states? No, despite their love for games such as the NBA, they find many of their people addicted to the idea of betting to the point of having to lose everything that his family has. This is where they draw the line for their laws, similar to restricting having casinos in their premises.

But it does not happen to everybody else; that is why in the United States sports betting is open and available. Drawing the line between addiction and balanced betting already depends on the hands of the bettor. Besides, sports betting has always been considered as a moneymaking opportunity for all citizens, without having to leave the comforts of your home or spend endless hours working at night.

If you want better sports betting odds in all NBA games, finding a good betting system is easy, so long as you pay enough attention to details being served on the internet. Upon taking hold of what you think should be your betting system, nothing can stop you from deserving successive wins in the games of betting. Well, of course, be reminded that it also takes some smarts to get ahead in every bet of every game.

Understanding Different Types of Soccer Betting Odds

We found this amazing site which is the greatest resource for online soccer betting, providing players with all the information they need before they make a wager. The popularity of soccer betting comes from the high popularity of the sport itself. Millions of people watch soccer to either cheer on their favorite team or just to get a hand on the adrenaline of the game. The most important difference between soccer betting and other forms of gambling is that it takes some time to become profitable and start earning real money. However once you have learned some basic tips – as outlined here, you’ll be able to enjoy higher than average returns on your wagers.

The trick in soccer betting is studying past soccer games to get a feeling for what the best odds are and to be able to tell if one team is going to win or not. While this may sound like an obvious piece of advice, you’d be surprised at how many players loose site of the “big picture” when betting on soccer games.

There are also many soccer tips you can find online forums that analyze game stats. Probably one of the best soccer betting tips is to take a look at all the online sports books before making your first bet; different sports books offer different bonuses and different odds, all of which affect your bottom line as a sports bettor. Therefore, simply taking some time to choose the best odds will put you in the right track to win big. Some of the best sports books online are William Hill, Ladbrokes, 888 Sport and Bet 365.

Soccer betting odds are not as favorable when the point spread (also known as an ‘Asian handicap’ is involved. So for beginners it is recommended to start playing with straight bets. This type of betting is also known as 1X2 where 1 is the home team, 2 is the away team, and X is a tie.

Because the skill in picking a winner based on a point spread is more difficult we recommend going with 1X2 wagers as predicting which team is going to win without giving an exact amount of points is a simpler task. Other ways to get a winning start when betting on soccer is to simply bet on the home team each time. While the odds are usually lower on home teams – they outperform both tie bets and away teams by a wide margin.

To increase your chances of winning, you should first stick to games where you know both teams and can easily tell what their behavior on the field will be like. You chances for success at betting on soccer will only decrease if you are betting on unknown teams, or are chasing long shots with no realistic chance of winning only to make a big score.