Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

How to Identify the Best Pick 4 Lottery Strategy & System

The Basic Pick 4 Lottery Game has 10,000 possible winning Straight numbers ranging from 0000 to 9999. The odds of choosing the winning Pick 4 number straight is 10,000 to 1. These odds are much better than playing the Mega Millions, Powerball, and different State Lotteries which have odds of over 150,000,000 to 1.

Even the State Lottery games that have just 5 numbers to choose from still have much higher odds than the Pick 4. In the Illinois Lottery this game is called “Little Lotto”. Match all five numbers, and the jackpot prize begins with a $100,000 payoff. It increases with non-winning jackpot draws. It recently reached $1 Million. Once someone wins the jackpot it starts over at $100,000.00.

If you have four out of the five numbers, the payout is $100. Three of the five numbers pays the ticket holder $10.00. The last possible payout in the game is $1.00 for having two of the five numbers.

The reason I mention these games is to demonstrate how powerful the Daily Pick 4 Lotto Game is with its odds and its payoffs compared to all these games. Unlike the previously mentioned Lotto Games the Pick 4 Game has two possible wins – one is “Straight” (for the Jackpot Payoff of $5,000 for one $1 bet) and the other is “Box” (matching the four drawn numbers in any order).

The “Box” payouts range from $200 to $1200 for one $1 wager. The Single Pick 4 number is a combination of four different digits (1234). Any single set Pick 4 Number pays $200. There are some people who propose this system as being the best. As an example by choosing “1234” as your Pick 4 set you cover 24 possible numbers to win. These numbers are:

1234….1243….1324….1342….1423….1432 2134….2143….2314….2341….2413….2431 3124….3142….3214….3241….3412….3421 4123….4132….4213….4231….4312….4321

The odds have given you a better chance of winning, not just winning, but winning $200 for the same $1 investment as in any of the above lotto games. The odds of winning now are at 417 to 1.

Using this system by itself as the best system, for example, in April 2009 in Illinois, following are single Pick 4 results:

6273….4896….9702….0861….0563….2504 3501….3172….4938….0165….0379….9742 1358….3260….2380….0281….2765….6847 8479….8960….0869….4389….2537….2836

These 24 of 56 draws represent a 43% winning percentage. But there are 22 different singles represented here. When you add this information to the equation, the winning odds are further reduced. Since two single box forms (0689 & 3489) repeated themselves, this reduces it to 20 different single sets; even the basic “1234” wasn’t drawn.

It’s the basic start-up theory, but it is just not enough. You need more possibilities. The examples from Illinois, April 2009 Pick 4 results, showed that 57% of the winning draws were not single sets. These odds will change from month to month.

The next group of Pick 4 numbers is the “double” sets. Two of the four digits are the same (1123). Double sets cover 12 possible straight winning numbers like the following: 1123….1132….1213…1312….1231….1321 2311….3211….2131….3121…2113….3112.

The good news about double sets is that the payout is $400 per $1 investment. Let’s see how these sets of numbers were drawn in the Illinois Pick 4 April 2009 example:

0068….7080….5499….5363….5524….9593 6268….0449….8737….2010….5099….8048 9757….2990….7336….3351….6463….0727 7151….4140….0455….1626….1819….3404 7719….5626….7330….3225….7662

These 29 winning drawn Illinois Pick 4 numbers represent 50% of the 58 draws during the month. By including additional strategies that include “double” sets you now cover 93% of the April 2009 Illinois Pick 4 Winning Numbers. That’s a great improvement to your winning strategy. In January, single and double sets combined for 95%, and 96% in February and March.

In conclusion, look for a Pick 4 System that has multiple strategies to include more than just the single set of numbers. It is important to increase the winning percentage to 90% or higher of winning Pick 4 numbers. That spells SUCCESS. The Pick 4 Game is the best winnable lotto game available in the United States and Canada. Use and study a Proven and Verifiable Winning Strategy System. The truth is that you can become debt free and gain financial freedom with the right Pick 4 System once you learn it.

Best Casino Craps System – The Richochet Craps System

It is a known fact that there is no such thing as a casino craps system that will break the casino, or give you any technical edge over the house. However, this does not mean that some systems are not better than others, and when combined with smart gambling give you the best odds of making money. We are going to take a look at the best and most underplayed craps system there is. This system is so underplayed because it involves “unadvertised” best, or bets that are not labeled on the table. It also uses the “Don’t” side of the craps table, which is not a very popular side to play because you are betting against the shooter.

The first step to successfully implementing the Ricochet system is to chart the craps tables. This means you are going to walk around and look for a table that appears to be “cold” and going through shooters rather quickly. You do NOT want to use this system at a “hot” table. Following the trends is a very important thing to learn when playing the game of craps, as it will determine what you bet, when you bet, and how much you bet. When you have found a cold table that is alternating shooters frequently, you are ready to begin using the Ricochet craps system.

Begin by allowing the shooter to establish a point, and do not make any bets until the shooter establishes a point. After the shooter has established a point, you are going to make what is called a “Lay” bet against the point number. This type of bet is not “advertised” on the table, but the dealers will know what you mean. It is often referred to as $41 no 4 or 10, $31 no 5 or 9, or $25 no 6 or 8 depending on what number you a laying against. By making this bet you are betting that a 7 is going to come before the number you are laying. If a 7 comes, you win. If the number you are laying comes, you lose.

This lay bet acts only as a one roll hedge bet to cover your next bet, which is a $15 Don’t Come bet. The Don’t Come is the opposite of the Come, meaning that it will lose on a 7 or 11, win on a 2 or 3, push on a 12, and anything else will be a point number that it will “move behind.” When your $15 Don’t Come bet has moved behind a number, it acts just as a lay bet. You are betting that a 7 will come before the number you are behind. The odds in this situation are much in your favor, no matter what number you are behind. At the time you make your $15 Don’t Come bet, you can also choose to put $1 on the “Yo 11” bet, and this will act as an additional hedge to cover your $15 bet.

After you have successfully gone behind a number with your $15 Don’t Come bet, take your Lay bet down. Do this by telling the dealer “Down on my Lay,” in reference to whatever number you were laying. You will now be sitting behind a number with a $15 bet with the odds in your favor, simply waiting for a decision on that bet. If you are behind the 4 or 10, your odds are 2 to 1 in your favor. If you are behind the 5 or 9, your odds to 3 to 2 in your favor. If you are behind the 6 or 8, the odds are 6 to 5 in your favor.

The main concept behind this system is trying to find the best way to take advantage of the “Don’t” side of the table, which is where the greatest odds of winning are. If you are able to get behind a number safely, you are always going to have the odds to win because now you have the 7 working for you. The problem with playing the Don’t side has always been the 7 on the initial Don’t Come or don’t pass bet. What this system does, as you can see, is places a “lay” hedge bet on a number for one roll while you are establishing a number with your Don’t Come bet. This way the 7 can’t hurt your $15 Don’t Come bet, and the only thing you have to worry about is a repeat of the number that you are laying for one roll.

Let us run through one quick example game. The shooter throws a 9 as their point. You tell the dealer “$31 no 9 please,” and then place a $15 bet on the Don’t Come and toss a $1 chip in the middle shouting “Yo 11.” The shooter then rolls a 4. Your Don’t Come bet moves behind the 4, and right away you tell the dealer “Down on my lay,” pointing to your $31 no 9 bet. You now sit with a 2 to 1 chance of winning your $15 bet as you wait for either a 7 or 4 to come.

If everyone who played craps used this system it wouldn’t break the casino, but it would certainly give the casinos a much harder time. While this system alone will not give you the edge necessary to make money in the long run, if you combine it with all the essentials of gambling you can be sure to make money. Be sure to chart your tables, and set a loss limit and win goal. Use good discipline to walk away from the table when you reach either of these goals. Good luck at the tables!